This post is dedicated to a Bruce County friend, who often prods me to think further outside the box.
Recently, he emailed me this question: “What are your thoughts on Obama’s words - (I assumed he meant Cairo on Thursday June 5th) and what lies behind them?”
For a long while I thought about the question – trying to come up with a short answer. As I reviewed his speech, I felt that his words were in line with American Establishment thinking – i.e.: talk nice to Muslims, apologise to Iran for installing the Shah in 1953 and talk tough to the Israelis.
The usual suspects “behind the curtain” are ok with Obama…that would include certain elements in CIA and FBI…certain elements in the “military/business community”… and certain elements in Obama’s own Democratic Party. All of them are happy – so far.
The ultimate upshot of what the behind-the-curtain men want, is not 100% clear as yet. If Obama survives past the midterms, things may change. If he does not survive, then it’s anybody’s guess as to what will happen. In the meantime, what he’s saying is being well received. Things have changed since the days of Kennedy and Vietnam. Even though the U. S. lost that war, the weapons guys prospered. To keep the weapons machine busy, they continued to fund the Israeli arms lobby in Washington D.C. Now, Afghanistan appears to be a similar style war and once again, the Americans could lose. The difference today, is the possible loss of Pakistan as a western “friendly” and that raises the spectre of nuclear weapons in the hands of extremists. (In the case of Vietnam, there was no such danger. China was happy to let the U.S. blow its brains out in a completely hopeless cause and neither the U.S. nor the Soviets wanted to drop a bomb. But now, the stakes are a lot higher; Pakistan has the bomb – and nobody wants a nuclear holocaust. So what’s my take on all this? Well it ain’t as easy as it looks, but here goes.
It’s quite likely in my view, that Obama WILL survive past the midterms, because he has agreed with the weapons community that they can have their “surge” in Afghanistan regardless. 33,000 additional American soldiers are being deployed in the Afghan battle theatre. Arms manufacturers and international security firms can expect to mine gold in the coming conflict with Pakistan; and that conflict is certainly on its way. The establishment elements – including those at CIA, FBI, Homeland Security – etc – the “etc” being the Military Industrial business complex (MIC) – recognize that Iran must be appeased if a nuclear diaster is to be avoided. Business opportunities are virtually nil after a nuclear war. Also, Iran is essential to a resolution of “the Afghan problem”. It’s in the same neighborhood and it has identical views on the Taliban as do the U.S authorities. So if the Americans need to eat a little crow by appeasing the Mullahs, that’s ok with those who hold the real power in America. Besides, the U.S. needs Iran to help keep Iraqi Shi’ites under control and Iran is apparently willing to help out. Plus – if possible – Iran needs to be kept on a diet of U.S. petrodollars. Appeasement in this case has its benefits and so Obama has been encouraged to be conciliatory with Teheran.
Finally, the “Mr. Bigs” agree with their President, that Israel needs to be reined in. For too long now, in their view, Israel has been dictating U.S. policy. Israeli leaders have gotten too cocky need a wakeup call. (The U.S. will – of course – continue to pay the Israeli bills for weapons, water and security in general. But the hard cold fact is that the Israelis know they are now a secondary factor; they know that the next confrontation has to be avoided at all costs…because…the next one will be the last one. Look for a new programme of calibrated concessions by the Israeli authorities.
Hey! You go with the guys who butter your bread.
