Canadian media think that Prime Minister Stephen Harper is moving into election mode now.
That’s a distinct possibility, judging by the tenor of a speech he gave to Conservative party stalwarts, this past Friday, framed by a massive Canadian flag. The occasion was the second anniversary of the minority government’s unexpected takeover.
He waxes jingoistic on Afghanistan, apparently in the belief that The Manley Report will resonate with Canadians in a positive way.
"Friends, let me just say this: on a matter of national and global security like this, we will never make a decision based on polls. We will make our decision based on what is right."
You see…he’s taking the "high road".
As yet there is no complete text available for the speech…not even on the Conservative website. There is only what the media have reported. According to The Calgary Herald…
"Harper sprinkled his speech with references to his government’s ability to manage the economy.
His emphasis was on the economy – a subject he clearly thinks has more appeal to voters than Afghanistan. The Toronto Star quotes him as saying, "…we cannot be complacent about the continued growth of our economy. Recent volatility in financial markets, mostly emanating from the United States, may be with us for some time to come. Good jobs are threatened in some of our traditional industries. And cost pressures in some parts of the country are straining the budgets of working families. We’re aware of these challenges,"
As for Afghanistan, Harper appealed to the "patriots" in the country, virtually characterizing the Manley report as an endorsement of his own views.
Here’s what the Globe and Mail said,
"After a week in which Afghanistan dominated news headlines, the prime minister alluded only generally to the mission. He did not address the mushrooming detainee controversy or the substance of a recent blue-ribbon panel’s report on how to proceed. While praising the Manley report on Afghanistan, Mr. Harper gave no indication how he’ll respond to its recommendations".
"The Manley report is a good report — strong, balanced and realistic," he said. "I urge you all to read it."
But It’s The Economy, which is obviously the issue on which he intends to wage the forthcoming campaign.
The Globe again…
"His central message was that with the economy fading, it would be disastrous if Canadians elected a Liberal government in an election that could happen any time between now and late 2009.
He attacked Liberals for opposing his recent GST cut and cast his foes as careless spenders.
"Their reckless spending would — in one budget — push the country back into deficit, adding to the federal debt and putting upward pressure on interest rates," he said.
"They never saw a tax they didn’t like. Never saw a tax they wouldn’t hike."
(the audience reportedly chuckled)
My own view is that Harper will indeed continue to hammer the economy as the central issue; he will continue to single out the Liberal party as his main political enemy and he will continue to ignore pressing social issues.
Both the Liberals and the NDP will be treading a fine line.
If they attack the Manley report too vigorously, they risk alienating a great many voters who instinctively support the Canadian Armed Forces, regardless of the inherent "merits" of the Afghan "mission".
And here’s the crux of that issue…many Canadians could just conceivably come to view Harper as an embattled leader attempting to hold together a U.N./NATO-sponsored humanitarian mission. (The honour of our country and our Armed Forces is at stake). Those who wish to defeat Harper will have to keep that fact in mind.
The central problem for the opposition is this: the majority of Canadians have no idea what Afghanistan is all about. The majority don’t care much about torturing General Hillier’s "scumbags".
My guess is that Harper doesn’t know much about Afghanistan either. It’s a good bet also that he doesn’t care much about the torture issue. I believe that my view is underscored by the fact that the Manley Report ignored the torture business altogether.
Manley’s main recommendation is that we should stay in Afghanistan only if NATO ponies up another thousand soldiers. (If we are forced to stand down in Afghanistan it will be NATO’s fault). A thousand more soldiers from Europe, untrained and unprepared for the style of conflict in Afghanistan is an almost laughable idea. It would be entirely laughable if it were not so naive and so tragically off the mark.
A third party intervention in a civil war is always a losing proposition, period. Although…it’s possible…that an additional 40-50 thousand troops and a billion dollars in aid might accomplish what the U.S. and NATO say they want…but that’s pie in the sky.
As for the economy…Afghanistan is already testing our capacity to pay the final bill. Manley admitted the present strategy is deficient…although he made little mention of the real cost.
Continuing on the present warpath will suck us into a danger zone of out-of-control military spending. That in turn could lead us to squander our existing surplus and drive us into assuming an increased debt, while Canadians suffer from underfunded education, healthcare and job development.
So in a very real sense, it comes down to a choice between funding a far off conflict in a civil war situation…or paying attention to the needs of Canadians and providing leadership to NATO for a rational change of strategy in Afghanistan. How to get that across is the challenge, which faces the opposition parties.
Intelligent Canadians have become very distrustful of politicians. They have become distrustful of government in general. Somehow our political parties need to restore the public trust in the process…restore the public’s belief that government knows what it’s doing…and give people some hope that decisions will be made in the public interest.
So whenever the election is called and it will likely be sooner rather than later…the winners will be the best spinners…the Tories, wrapped in the flag and preaching fear, will spin a strong, united Canada – defending our values…the NDP will push for more emphasis on social programmes…and the Liberals and the Greens will be caught somewhere in the middle with the Bloc Quebecois.
It won’t be a pretty sight.
